patrick stephens at psjs.net

The election is tomorrow and it appears that Barack Obama will win. The only question that remains is how large his margin of victory will be.

While I can find little comfort in the thought of an Obama victory–and even less in the prospect of an undivided government–I don’t think that the world will come to an end on Jan. 20th if Obama is sworn in. I do, however, have several reservations about an Obama administration. For the sake of brevity, I’m only going to list my three biggest fears.

1) Obama and the Courts

We need somebody who’s got the heart, the empathy, to recognize what it’s like to be a young teenage mom. The empathy to understand what it’s like to be poor, or African-American, or gay, or disabled, or old. And that’s the criteria by which I’m going to be selecting my judges.

I understand that desire. Indeed, I empathize with it. But empathy is not the critical requirement of a judge. In fact, I think that the ability to put empathy aside is the single hardest job that a judge has. In announcing his decision to vote against the confirmation of Justice Roberts, Obama said,

The problem I face — a problem that has been voiced by some of my other colleagues, both those who are voting for Mr. Roberts and those who are voting against Mr. Roberts — is that while adherence to legal precedent and rules of statutory or constitutional construction will dispose of 95 percent of the cases that come before a court, so that both a Scalia and a Ginsburg will arrive at the same place most of the time on those 95 percent of the cases — what matters on the Supreme Court is those 5 percent of cases that are truly difficult. In those cases, adherence to precedent and rules of construction and interpretation will only get you through the 25th mile of the marathon. That last mile can only be determined on the basis of one’s deepest values, one’s core concerns, one’s broader perspectives on how the world works, and the depth and breadth of one’s empathy.

I beg to differ. The principles of justice are not malleable in difficult circumstances. We most emphatically should not ask or judges to rule on the law, 95% of the time, but then, in “truly difficult” cases to ignore “precedent and the rules of construction and interpretation” and issue judgments based on their own “core concerns.”

My fear is that Obama will not face any serious resistance to his judicial nominations. Unlike the Bush nominations, in which more radical nominations faced difficult confirmation battles, there will be no such tempering of the process in an Obama administration.

2) The Economy

Obama’s proposed domestic policies are economically disastrous.

I don’t think, even with a Democratic Congress that even half of Obama’s proposals will pass. Obama will face growing deficits, a devalued dollar, the constant threat of inflation, and a slowing economy. Given those constraints, he simply won’t have enough money to do everything he wants to do.

But even half of what he wants to do is bad enough. Raising taxes in the teeth of a recession is dangerous and coupled with his animosity to free trade, potentially disastrous. He has already indicated a desire to pursue an aggressive agenda in his first 100 days in office and I fear that he sincerely wants to emulate the first 100 days of FDR’s first term. Obama has never indicated any inclination to trim the size or scope of government, but rather has proposed rafts and rafts of new policies, agencies, and proposals that will further restrain the economy and increase government spending.

My fear is that Obama’s protectionist, redistributive leanings will dominate throughout his administration and that the current economic problems will be exacerbated rather than alleviated and that we will all end up much, much less prosperous than we should otherwise be.

3) Foreign Policy

The challenges for the next President will not come from Iraq. They will come from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, China, Russia, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia.

In Iraq, we’ve essentially won. We’re losing in Afghanistan and it’s not clear that there’s a strategy to victory there. I think the best we can hope for is a kind of tense stability in Afghanistan and for that, we desperately need a strong diplomatic relationship with Pakistan. Obama’s saber rattling in that regard has not been helpful.

Iran is a growing threat and will undoubtedly work to destabilize the American presence in Afghanistan. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia will continue to provide material aid to anti-Israeli terror groups and the next President will have to find tough diplomatic solutions to Iran’s growing belligerence and Saudi Arabia’s growing dominance in the region.

Russia has rediscovered a zeal for regional aggression and the recent joint military operations they conducted with Venezuela are a distinct threat to Columbia and South American trade. Obama has been decidedly lukewarm in his support of free-trade with Columbia, and his tepid non-response to Russia’s invasion of Georgia does not inspire confidence. The latter is especially troubling considering he favors admitting Georgia into NATO.

China is a growing economic force and the lure of their emerging market will do much to blunt American opposition to their regional aggression. Obama will feel pressure from his base to press China on human rights violations in Tibet, an issue on which China has not traditionally been very receptive to criticism. Additionally, China’s relationship to Taiwan is as strained as ever and could grow more belligerent if it senses ambivalence in U.S. foreign policy.

My fear is that Obama’s philosophical background will cripple his foreign policy. His domestic policy ambitions will likely be built with corresponding cuts in defense. Combining radical cuts (Barney Frank has asked for a 25% cut in defense spending) with Obama’s national service ambitions in an increasingly unstable world is a recipe for complete disaster. Regional conflicts in South America, the Caucasus, and East Asia are all likely. We are already heavily engaged militarily in Afghanistan and the Middle East and simply do not have the resources or the active forces to handle another conflict if it should demand our attention.

Politics 2008 Election, Barack Obama